Located in an important geostrategic position, Vietnam has a certain role in balancing powers in the region and in the world. Therefore, Vietnam isa partner “wanted” by big countries. This brings an opportunity for Vietnam in realization of its goals of development andprotecting its sovereignty and territory as well as disadvantage when the competition between big countries is growing.
Vietnam is located in an important geostrategic position
The increasingly complicated international environment
In the 12th National Party’s Congress, the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) affirmed that the world will change rapidly in more complicated and unpredictable situations in the coming period. Some emerging issues in the new context can be seen as follows:
Firstly, the world is perceived to undergo profound changes. It is the fourth industrial revolution with two “waves” of smart devices and automation at a new level that is changing deeply the present production and creates variety of new productive forces and new ways of production organization and management which leads to the birth of a true knowledge-based economy. The new science and technology revolution is creating production tools that not only replace manual labor but also human intellectual labor and turn science and technology into a direct production force.
Secondly, the trend of globalization and international integration is inevitability; production forces reach a high level of development thanks to the scientific and technological revolution. Internationalization mentioned by K. Marx and Engel one and half century ago is globalization and integration at present. A new economic era begins; international actors are actively shaping many issues in the world, at the same time, restructuring the present world. There are more and more countries participating into global production networks and value chains. Countries have adjusted their strategies, restructured the economy and renovated economic institutions.
Firmly defending the country
Thirdly, the world today become the environment of nations. The Twelfth National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam affirmed: “The situation in the world and in the region in the next five years will be changing complicatedly, which directly affects our country and creates both opportunities and challenges. Peace, national independence, democracy, cooperation and development will still be major trends.”(1).
While affirming the trend of peace, cooperation and development, we have to frequently keep in mind the risks that threaten world security, including both traditional and non-traditional factors such as national sovereignty violation, territorial and resource disputes, religious conflicts, ethnicity, local wars, political riots, terrorism, high-tech crimes, epidemics, water source and environment security.
The world is not really peaceful as it is seen, but if we look at its operating mechanism, we can see that the world is moving in the trend of peace, at least in the vision to the middle of the 21st century. This valuable space and time is the environment for all nations and political forces coexisting, including Vietnam which is accelerating its comprehensive innovation process. Therefore, in its political report submitted to the Twelfth National Party Congress, the Communist Party of Vietnamemphasized the dual goals of “firmly defending the Fatherland and maintaining a peaceful and stable environment”.
Next, the new world order is in the forming process, creating a multi-polar and multi-center situation with geostrategic and multi-dimensional movements. The multi-polar world is becoming more and more clear and the trend of democratization in international relations continues to develop, but bigeconomies will still dominate international relations. The manifestations of extreme nationalism, oppressive power, and pragmatism are emerging in international relations. Multilateral institutions are facing with great challenges.
Besides, the contemporary world is seen in its comprehensiveness in terms of economy, military, security, politics, science and technology, education, culture and so on; both in terms of hard tangible and soft intangible power; based on both domestic and foreign relations.The power balance in each field between the leading countries is very different: in the field of military, absolute advantage belongs to the United States; in the field of economy, there appears multi-centers; in the field of security, it can’t deny the fact of mixed multi-polarity. The world has been never shaped in such a complex cubism as in the current period; on the other hand, the asymmetry between poles and centers in the world is also an unprecedented phenomenon. In this particular context, developing countries, especially small ones, are facing with great opportunities as well as challenges in development.
Moreover, relations between countries in the world, especially between big countries continue to be volatile with characteristics of multifaceted cooperation, fierce competition and willingness to compromise with each other. The ruling parties and the governments in the countries all over the world have adjusted and even built a new foreign strategy, in which the national interests are the most important bases for policies and activities. Cooperation, compromising, competition between big countries strongly impact the world and the region. Linking, competition and struggles between countries for their own benefit in the region and the world become more and more complicated. Big countries not only compete with each other but also involve in diverse institutions. Typical examples of the new forms of relations between big countries can be given as follows: the uncertainty of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP); China actively lobbying for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP); the US, China and a number of other major powers increasingly participating in mechanism of ASEAN +; China upgrading the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) and strengthening the BRICS relations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) to counterbalance the US and EU, and so on.
- Geostrategic position and strategic requirements for Vietnam
Being a country of an important geostrategic position and internationally assessed as having the potential to become a middle power, Vietnam has a certain role in the balance of powers in the region and in the world. Therefore, Vietnam has always been “wanted” by big countries. In the context of increasing large-scale strategic competition, especially the US – China one, Vietnam’s strategic values and bargaining power in relations with big countries which are China’s potential rivals will increase accordingly. This brings an advantage for the country in taking advantages ofbig countries for its security goal (especially for protecting its sovereignty and territory) and development as well as disadvantage when there is a rise on competition between big countries.
Vietnam’s history has shown that with its geostrategic position, the most appropriate foreign policy in relation to other countries, especially big countries is an independence, self-reliance, diversification and multilateralization. It is absolutely necessary to avoid “being inclined to one side” with any big countries (in peace time), and at the same time flexibly implement the “dynamic balancing” policy among the big countries. If we were inclined entirely to a certain big country, it would mean that our strategic values would be gone. Therefore, in our strategy of protecting territorial integrity and national development, it is important to continue the dynamic balancing policy in relations with China and the US as well as other big countries. We need to promote relations with these countries, using relations with one country to influence another in order to prevent tension with thesebig countries at the same time. In addition, we must attach special importance to relations with ASEAN, contribute positively and play a greater role in making ASEAN a unified regional organization, have close links in the field of politics and economy and at the same time, strengthen ties with other regional powers such as Japan, India, Russia and the EU to create a strategic balance, reduce pressure and avoid being too dependent on China and the United States.
The Chinese installation of Hai Duong 981 rig in the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf of Vietnam from May 2, 2014 to July 15, 2014 (at the time of good relation between Vietnam-China) showed that China’s regional policies in general and its policies towards Vietnam moved into a new phase. It meant our national defense strategy underwent a more difficult period. The relation between Vietnam and China also came into a new stage with more uncertain and unpredictable factors than ever before.
In this situation, if Vietnam is not well prepared for the worst scenarios for protecting territorial sovereignty, such as military conflicts in the East Sea, there would be great possibility of violation of independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Vietnam. As a result, it is extremely urgent to improve our strategic position in the region in the new situation.
Vietnam’s diplomatic struggles and the regional and international response to China’s illegal placing Hai Duong 981 rig and improving artificial islands did not get results. International and regional reaction has not been strong enough to force China to adjust its policies. In other words, Vietnam’s struggle measures and international diplomatic pressures do not make enough necessary deterrents to China or make it pay much more than it gains. Many experts and scholars have suggested that it is time for Vietnam to abandon its “three nos” defense policy start the alliance with big countries with the ability to control over Chinese strategies in the region.However, Vietnam’s internal politics as well as historical lessons of the past showed that an alliance policy and a shift in foreign policy at the moment is unfeasible. The only big country that is capable and is able to control China’s strategy in the East Sea is the United States but the big difference in political – socio regime and value system between Vietnam and the US makes it impossible for the two countries to create true alliances. This fact makes Vietnamese policymakers cautious, not betting on alliance relations with any big countries.
- Policy implications for Vietnam
The dispute settlement in the East Sea can be seen from the aspects as follows:
General understanding
First, the experience of successfully solving territorial border issues between Vietnam and China shows that finding a peaceful solution to the dispute in the East Sea between Vietnam and China is not an impossible task at present. China needs a peaceful and stable environment to realize the first goal in the “two hundred-year goals” that the Chinese Communist Party set out at the 18thCongress in 2012. Thus, China wants to resolve disputes with its neighbors peacefully.However, China’s rise is almost irreversible. China’s position and power will increase in the region. In the next five-ten years, China is likely to become the top power in Asia – Pacific in all aspects from economic to military, only after the overall strength of the US but likely to surpass the US in total economy. The correlation of overall power between China and Vietnam is not going well for Vietnam; consequently, it put Vietnam into very difficult policy options if it wants to firmly defend its strategic and legitimate interests in the East Sea.
Vietnam implementing the foreign policy of independence, self-reliance, diversification and multilateralization
Moreover, when disputes in land and sea border in the Tonkin Gulf are related only to Vietnam and China, the dispute in the East Sea now involves many others (five countries, six sides). In addition, the East Sea issue has gone beyond the framework of sovereignty and resource disputes between China and four ASEAN countries (including Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei) and territories (Taiwan), becoming a focus of China-US strategic competition. Therefore, the complexity and unpredictability of the East Sea dispute is much higher than that in the land and sea border in the Tonkin Gulf between Vietnam and China before. The American “rebalancing” policy in the region can control China in one hand, prevent Chinese military adventure activities at sea, and makes the East Sea issue increasingly complicated and highly internationalized on the other hand. Therefore, finding a long-term, satisfactory solution to the dispute in the East Sea between Vietnam and China will be very difficult and complicated because it is related to many variables that are beyond the control of both countries. China’s compromise on geography is increasingly narrowed and does not want to create “unfavorable” precedents that can be exploited later by other claimant states.
The declining economic growth rate and emerging conflicts in Chinese society puts the fifth leading generation led by Xi Jinping under great pressure. This makes China increasingly exploit nationalism in order to maintain the legitimacy of the regime. As a result, China has been in a position of almost no turning back, no geographic compromise on the East Sea issue, at least until Xi Jinping is in power.
Second, an unfavorable factor for Vietnam is the fact that China is likely to downplay the relation with Vietnam compared to interests and ambitions in the East Sea. The common ideological element is no longer an important denominator of common interests between the two countries, mainly because China is increasingly pragmatic in pursuing great national interests. Even at the time when Vietnam – China relations were good and seemed to improve, China unexpectedly placed Hai Duong 981 rig illegally in the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf of Vietnam, then did a series of invasion systematically.
Third, it can be seen that the United States is currently the only big power that has both the ability and the will to curb China’s behaviors and ambitions in the East Sea. However, dislike of external intervention of US voters made the Obama government cautious and confused and not able to find effective measures to prevent China from breaking the status quo of the East Sea. The PCA’s ruling on the Philippines case on July 12, 2016 may be a relatively comprehensive legal victory for the Philippines, but it was not enough to make China change its behavior in the context that the US is afraid to confront directly with China. In particular, Donald Trump came to power in the United States. If strategic interests are not clearly identified, this does not rule out the possibility that the United States will reduce its commitment on security in the Asia-Pacific region, which enables China to realize its claim of “U-shaped line” in the South China Sea.
In conclusion, there will be more and more unfavorable factors for Vietnam in the dispute in the East Sea with China. The asymmetry of power balance between Vietnam and China as well as the strategic environment in the region will make a lot of challenges for Vietnam. If Vietnam is based solely on its own resources, it will be difficult for the country to find a relatively satisfactory and sustainable solution for disputes with China in the East Sea.
Some policy suggestions
It is necessary for Vietnam to consider carefully to find the most effective or the least disadvantage solutions for maritime disputes with China. With an independence, self-reliance, non-alliance foreign policy and a “three nos” defense policy, Vietnam needs to rely mainly on its own resources in dealing with China.
Firstly, it is necessary to clearly define the guiding viewpoints of “being resolute in the struggle to protect the independence, sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of the Fatherland”and “both cooperation and fighting” as stated in the 12th National Party Congress. That is, it is imperative to keep balance and harmony for realization, avoid absoluteness or fall into any extremes. In the strategic policy forEast Sea, Vietnam is consistent in strategic principles but flexible in tactics.
Secondly, Vietnam needs to build consensus within the country, considering the East Sea issue as long-term and impossible to handle it hastily with nationalist sentiments. It is important to clarify that the issue of the East Sea may continue unresolved for many decades, even during the whole the 21st century. Therefore, what Vietnam needs to do persistently and consistently is to avoid absolutely conflicts unless being tipped over the edge, try to maximize the opportunities for maintaining a peaceful environment, managing disputes, handling crisis and prevent crisis from escalating into military conflicts.In addition, it is necessary to detect and seize opportunities, even the smallest, in order to find a peaceful way to resolve disputes with China in the East Sea.
Thirdly, Vietnam needs to take advantage of special relations with China, especially with its Communist Party. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain and promote this relation to control disputes and handle crisis at sea. The official visit of the Party’s General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong to China (January 12 to 16, 2017) was the specific expression of the role of the high-level diplomacy of the Communist Party of Vietnam. The visit have contributed to deepening bilateral relations with specific discussions in the handling of the East Sea issue today.
Fourthly, Vietnam needs to further promote interweaving strategic interests with big countries such as the United States, Japan, Russia, India, China. It is imperative to create intertwining benefits with big countries to strengthen “cooperation” and minimize “suspicion”. The reason why the crisis due to illegal placement of Hai Duong 981 did not escalate into a military conflict islargely Vietnam had a relatively stable external relations, especially relations with big countries.
Finally, as a medium-sized country with limited resources, Vietnam must better exploit the multilateral diplomatic instruments and prepare legal instruments for the dispute in the East Sea with China. The role of public opinion, multilateralism and international law is increasingly considered important in international relations in the twenty-first century. Therefore, pursuing the strategy of “internationalization” of the East Sea issue helps slow down the speed of realizing China’s “U-shaped line” claim and gather more external forces to support Vietnam’s legitimate interests. The “internationalization” of the East Sea issue does not replace bilateral and multilateral negotiations by itself to resolve disputes in the East Sea, but it helps Vietnam to avoid the worst scenario concerningthe East Sea issue. In this process, it is very important to keep using mechanisms led by ASEAN which is the most important forum for Vietnam to gather forces and “internationalize” the East Sea issue. Therefore, promoting the role in ASEAN is a strategic benefit for Vietnam, which contributes to dealing with China concerning the East Sea issue.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Viet Thao
Vice President, Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics
https://hcma.vn/tintuc/Pages/dien-dan-chinh-tri-tu-tuong.aspx?CateID=201&ItemID=27542
16:38 11/12/2017
